Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.298060 33.784501 37.792493 42.811077 49.031793 56.639710 66.901437
2025-06-01 25.246105 29.584441 35.029876 42.608624 53.329203 68.782431 94.703539
2025-06-08 21.874724 26.518151 32.719436 42.068160 56.812275 81.540212 134.080644
2025-06-15 19.523993 24.270129 30.913804 41.589947 60.074573 95.877904 195.379249
2025-06-22 17.819433 22.596465 29.542474 41.322107 63.497829 113.033634 303.997822
2025-06-29 16.319733 20.992544 27.977924 40.315350 65.137695 127.915263 475.774249
2025-07-06 15.747621 20.653626 28.273403 42.535358 74.266887 173.339062 1619.839801
2025-07-13 14.778317 19.595843 27.243770 42.058411 77.162114 204.417137 10124.831774
2025-07-20 14.079639 18.881138 26.679203 42.348274 82.182243 256.341096 NaN
2025-07-27 13.488907 18.276740 26.218253 42.740168 87.790769 331.890412 NaN
2025-08-03 12.900437 17.622694 25.588283 42.637122 91.988023 422.679037 NaN
2025-08-10 12.310194 16.919282 24.792996 42.015344 94.293917 519.917337 NaN
2025-08-17 11.862179 16.427230 24.349861 42.163923 99.734748 736.127961 NaN
2025-08-24 11.400847 15.881512 23.754538 41.850824 103.453790 1037.140176 NaN
2025-08-31 10.952267 15.328944 23.096567 41.275451 105.945824 1477.626299 NaN
2025-09-07 10.552460 14.835914 22.511095 40.789724 108.734357 2343.176401 NaN
2025-09-14 10.208173 14.418665 22.038321 40.520460 112.573789 4893.518898 NaN
2025-09-21 9.820461 13.905290 21.336741 39.541218 112.405061 9000.197564 NaN
2025-09-28 9.756838 13.955022 21.760585 41.688084 131.231235 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.461659 13.576869 21.282420 41.225734 134.541860 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.249539 13.336670 21.070728 41.505761 143.375988 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.058514 13.124464 20.900494 41.884655 153.822422 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.841844 12.855059 20.589223 41.784902 160.840379 NaN NaN